Daniel Tobler
Deputy Head of Engineering and Natural Hazard Department
Geotest AG
Switzerland

Biography
Daniel Tobler is a geologist and currently works as deputy head and project manager at the engineering geology department of GEOTEST, Switzerland. GEOTEST is an internationally experienced consulting company. Daniels primary work projects are linked to natural hazard assessments (i.e. rockfall, landslides, glacial lakes), planning of mitigation measures and risk management. For the last few years he is involved in different projects related to Climate Change and its influence in High Mountainous Areas all over the world (e.g. South America or Asia).

Abstract
Early Warning and Hazard Assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods, Karakoram Mountains, China

In the last decades, several glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) damaged infrastructure and claimed human lives along Yarkant River. The catchment area of Yarkant River is located in the Chinese Karakoram Mountains. The spontaneous floods pose a threat to over 1 million inhabitants on the floodplains of Yarkant River and are causing an annual monetary loss of approx. 10 million Euros. The floods are provoked by meltwater, by rainstorms and – most violent and disastrous – by glacial lake outbursts. The largest and most frequent glacial lake outbursts occur in the area of Keleqin River in the upper Shaksgam Valley of the Karakoram Mountains. Keleqin is one of several tributaries of Yarkant River. The GLOFs originate from a remote ice-dammed glacier lake at 4’750 m a.s.l., approx. 560 km upstream of the floodplains. There, Kyagar Glacier tongue entirely blocks the riverbed. Based on a Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of Water Resources of P.R. China and the Swiss Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications, it was decided to initiate a Sino-Swiss project with the goal to implement an early warning system, allowing authorities and population to take the necessary measures in order to raise the safety of settlements and livestock. A further goal is to assess the long-term development of the flood hazard situation in the catchment area of Yarkant River by analyzing past and real-time information/data on the glacier lake situation. In addition, scenario based forecasts of the future glacial lake developments are elaborated, considering climate change. A GLOF early warning system, combining satellite remote sensing and three automatic terrestrial observation and warning stations, was implemented between 2011 and 2013. The stations are equipped with modern High-Tech instruments and are controlled by a datalogger which is connected to the internet by a satellite link. The datalogger collects the measurements and transmits them periodically to a data server. In case thresholds have been exceeded, a message is sent to the data server. The server then alerts the local authorities by SMS and email.