Zahrah N. Musa
Researcher
UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education
The Netherlands

Biography
Mrs Zahrah N. Musa is registered as a PhD candidate in Water Science and Engineering Department at UNESCO-IHE Delft, The Netherlands. Her research is titled "Living with Sea Level Rise on a Subsiding Delta: Using Satellite Data and Information as Tools to Develop Mitigation and Adaptation Options for the Niger Delta". She is also an assistant chief scientific officer with National Space Research and Development Agency (NASRDA) Nigeria.

Abstract
How Vulnerable is the Lower Niger Delta to Inundation from Sea Level Rise?

A combination of low elevation and gentle slopes expose many coastal areas to inundation by flood waters. Inundation due to the effects of Sea level rise (SLR) will have great consequences if areas that were under fresh water regimes are turned into salt water swamps/ wetlands and coastal shorelines are moved landwards. A report by the United Nations Framework on Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) indicated that the Niger-delta region could be inundated with water due to the effects of climate change. More so, the Niger delta which is rich in oil and gas has several oil wells onshore and is estimated to subside at 25mm/yr. SRTM DEM, NigeriaSat1 image, a tidal surface and projected SLR values were used to map the possible inundation extents from future SLR for the Niger delta. The method used is the modified bathtub approach that accounts for local tidal variability (following the methodology used by the U.S NOAA coastal service centre). SLR values used were linearly interpolated from Rahmstorf projections (0.5-1.4m by 2100) to give 0.12m-0.41m by 2030 and 0.23m -0.65m by 2050. The estimated land subsidence value of 25mm/yr was projected to give 0.75m for 2030 and 1.25m by 2050. The results showed that: 2.3 - 3.2% of the Niger delta could be inundated due to SLR by the year 2050 and 3.4 - 7.5% of the Niger delta could be inundated due to SLR and land subsidence by the year 2050. The areas that could be affected include major settlements like Warri, Bonny and Port Harcourt.