Health Risks Influence Future Consumer Behaviors

In an increasingly interconnected world, predicting and understanding health risks and consumer behaviors has become important for businesses, public health organizations, the financial services sector, and policymakers. With the advent of artificial intelligence (AI) and the availability of newer and larger datasets, it is now possible to leverage data on social and environmental risk factors, as well as health outcomes, to forecast their impact on, predict, and potentially shape consumer behavior.

Consumer behaviors refer to the actions, decisions, and patterns of individuals or groups in relation to the acquisition, consumption, and disposal of goods and services. In the context of health, it can be considered the decisions individuals make with respect to their own health or due to potential exposure to real or perceived health risks. For example, health is an often-cited reason for an individual to stop or cut down on drinking and smoking.

Forecasting Economic Impact of Employee Absenteeism

Respiratory diseases, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, seasonal Influenza, and the current RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) which is currently circulating in many parts of the U.S., pose substantial repercussions on labor force productivity. In 2022, about 315 million to 1.05 billion worker days, equivalent to 1.3 million to 4.3 million workers effectively exiting the workforce for the entire year, were lost due to the pandemic (Source) alone. The financial repercussions for employers were staggering, with a total cost estimated at $213.1 billion (Source). The expenses linked to the reduction in work hours during the pandemic were a substantial $167.4 billion during the first year and an additional $45.7 billion in the second year (Source).

Figure 1: Labor Force Participation Rate July 2019 – July 2023.

In February 2020, the labor force participation rate for individuals aged 16 and above stood at 63.3 percent and decreased over 3% in just 2 months to 60.1 percent in April 2020 (Source: S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Participation Rate [CIVPART], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; November 7, 2023.)

The importance of a tool that transforming Influenza, COVID-19, RSV, and other respiratory illness-related disease spread into predictions on employee absenteeism for businesses and financial organizations cannot be overstated, especially in today’s world where global health crises can have significant and far-reaching economic consequences.

A key reason for the importance of such a tool is its ability to serve as an early warning system for employers for factors that may impact productivity. By tracking trends and potential disease hotspots, these organizations can proactively prepare for increased employee absenteeism, helping to avoid any unexpected drag on productivity. This predictive capability enables more effective risk management, operational management, and contingency planning.

Additionally, in the event of a disease outbreak, employers must make critical decisions concerning workforce management, remote work policies, and resource allocation. A predictive GIS solution that integrates hospitalization predictions and absenteeism data equips decision-makers with the information necessary to make data-driven choices, thereby minimizing the economic consequences of a health crisis.

During the pandemic, HSR.health developed its Flu+COVID-19 Hospitalizations Risk Index at the state, county, and/or hospital level which produces estimates between 2 and 3 months out that can guide staffing, resource allocation, and public health mitigation planning.

Figure 2: HSR.health’s COVID-19 Hospitalization Prediction.

Combined with workforce data and extended to cover all respiratory and other diseases, we are positioned to provide future absenteeism predictions through innovative geospatial analytics allowing for better preparedness and response to health conditions by employers, the manufacturing industry, shipping, supply chain, and all organizations impacted by labor force availability.

Additional Users

In addition to aiding employers anticipate absenteeism, the benefit of predicting consumer behavior based on health considerations accrue to many industries:

Financial services & consumer products – to predict changes in consumer behavior due to health considerations.
Supply chain managers – to anticipate the quantity and variety of supplies needed at the community level.
Public health organizations – to develop targeted prevention and intervention strategies.
Providers – to enable personalization of healthcare and consumer experience.
Insurers – to incorporate predictions into risk assessments optimizing insurance plans and personalizing insurance offerings.
Policymakers – to develop evidence-based policies and effectively allocate resources.

About HSR.health

HSR.health is an innovation-first GeoAI firm and the leading provider of health-focused geospatial data engineering. Our AI-enabled, geospatial platform curates data globally and provides actionable health risk insights to all organizations impacted by health emergencies.

Our risk indices identify areas where certain health and consumer behaviors are likely to occur based on social and environmental as well as health outcomes. Our capability lies in our ability to identify how consumer behavior will shift based on the health realities of a population, allowing businesses to adapt their strategies and offerings to align with evolving consumer needs. We provide valuable foresight into market responses, allowing our clients to make informed decisions and stay ahead in a rapidly changing landscape.